Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: More than 50 (99%)
Resolved: Aug 18, 2026, 1:54 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastMore than 50 99%+1.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 days ago
StaleDec 22, 25, 4:24 AMAug 18, 26, 1:54 AM
Probability Timeline
00.1%
1-50.1%
6-100.6%
11-500.2%
More than 5099%
99%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Rules
What counts is the problem marked as being resolved in https://www.erdosproblems.com
- Update 2026-01-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution timing clarification: The market will resolve based on when problems are marked as resolved on the Erdös Problems website in 2026, regardless of when the actual mathematical solution was discovered or published.
Open markets
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $298.6K
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $73,000 or above98%
- $73,500 or above97.5%
- $61,000 or above97%
+36 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $168.1K
- 24h Vol
- $152.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BMW Championship Winner
- XRP price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Number of open Erdös problems resolved in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices More than 50 at 99% as of August 19, 2026.
- When does Number of open Erdös problems resolved in 2026 resolve?
- Number of open Erdös problems resolved in 2026 is scheduled to resolve on August 18, 2026.
- How is Number of open Erdös problems resolved in 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: What counts is the problem marked as being resolved in https://www.erdosproblems.com