Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.1%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 4, 23, 9:02 PM UTCJan 2, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Waymo cross any Bay bridge?
Manifold MarketsWill an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030
Manifold MarketsNew US $20 bills don't have Andrew Jackson on them any time through 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027?
Kalshi$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketRules
At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track
- Currently the bridges we have are
- San Mateo - Hayward bridge, route 92, connecting Foster City/San Mateo to Hayward in the central bay
- Dumbarton Bridge - Connecting East Palo Alto to the south east bay
- San Francisco - Oakland Bay Bridge
- Golden Gate bridge - Connecting SF to Marin County in the north
Open markets
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $555.4K
- 24h Vol
- $499.3K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+13.0pt68.6%
- 65-89+5.0pt30.4%
- 90-114-3.5pt1%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA78.2%
- Apple+0.1pt13.9%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt17.1%
- 200-219-1.0pt16.2%
- 160-179+2.0pt15.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIIllinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- Above 87.5 TWh97%
- Above 90.0 TWh+1.0pt96%
- Above 92.5 TWh+3.0pt95%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $132.2K
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $220.4K
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Largest Company end of September?
- Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030 resolve?
- New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2031.
- How is New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track