Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore Jan 2030 95%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleFeb 25, 26, 4:39 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
The autonomous vehicle company Waymo has been expanding in the SF Bay Area for the past several years.
- In late 2025 they expanded to cover most of the peninsula.
- [image]To efficiently expand to the whole Bay area, they will presumably need to eventually cross one of the many bridges.
- When will Waymo cross any Bay bridge away from the peninsula?
- Which Bridges? We include four bridges: the Golden Gate Bridge, the Bay Bridge to Oakland, the San Mateo–Hayward Bridge, and the Dumbarton Bridge.
- We do not include other bridges (eg, not Richmond–San Rafael Bridge or Antioch bridge, etc) which do not connect to the current service area.
Open markets
Tech
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+3 more outcomes
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- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
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+3 more outcomes
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KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Waymo cross any Bay bridge??
- Manifold Markets prices Before Jan 2030 at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Waymo cross any Bay bridge? resolve?
- When will Waymo cross any Bay bridge? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is When will Waymo cross any Bay bridge? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The autonomous vehicle company Waymo has been expanding in the SF Bay Area for the past several years.