Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?
EntertainmentAIOne-OffTech3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 19, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastSecond half 2028 40.9%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
76
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 days ago
StaleOct 10, 23, 5:26 AMOct 17, 29, 6:29 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Second half 20251%
Volume trend
$46Jul 182d of dataJul 19
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(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener?r=Zmlyc3R1c2VyaGVyZQ)Resolves YES to each half-year this is possible.
- Resolves NO to each half year its not possible.