Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?
One-OffSociety & Culture3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63.9%
Forecasters
83
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleAug 31, 23, 2:38 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Is Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky?
Manifold MarketsIs Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky work for any major AI-related entity by 2027?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRules
https://glowfic.com/users/884
- Clarification on co-authorship: I would resolve it YES if Eliezer is cowriting even if he's not writing the whole thing, NO if it's entirely written by another author who is asking him a large number of questions behind the scene.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?
- 200-219+45.0pt96%
- 220-239-11.8pt4%
- 40-590%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
- 24h Vol
- $760.2K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-6444%
- 65-8925%
- <4019%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $27.7K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- Yes-35.0pt50%
- No50%
- Total Vol
- $3.7K
- 24h Vol
- $3.1K
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes+4.0pt18%
- Total Vol
- $21.1K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
KALSHIHarry Kane Knighted in 2026
- No86%
- Yes+1.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $17.6K
- 24h Vol
- $405.4
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky? resolve?
- Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://glowfic.com/users/884