Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 56.3%
Forecasters
51
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleAug 29, 23, 3:29 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIs Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky?
Manifold MarketsIs Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRules
The Waves Arisen is a Naruto fanfic with rationalist themes: https://wertifloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/25/chapter-1/
- There is sometimes speculation about whether the author Wertifloke is a pseudonym of noted rationalist fanfic author Eliezer Yudkowsky.
- Let's bet on it!
- This market is conditional on strong evidence coming out in favor of one outcome or the other.
- This market will trust Eliezer Yudkowsky's honor not to lie, and if he makes a relevant joke, to admit that it was a joke when asked.
- Likewise it will trust the word of others with a strong record of commitment to the truth.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt44.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt29.7%
- <40-7.0pt13.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $29.4K
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane89%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Renoir84%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $7.9K
- 24h Vol
- $6.7K
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $21.1K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.3K
- 24h Vol
- $287.1
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? resolve?
- Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Is Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The Waves Arisen is a Naruto fanfic with rationalist themes: https://wertifloke.wordpress.com/2015/01/25/chapter-1/