Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2027-2028 48.8%Leader of 4 outcomes
2027-2028 48.8%Forecasters
24
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-3.3 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 15, 24, 1:53 AM UTCJan 1, 41, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiStortest gap between two SpaceX Starship launches in 2026
Manifold MarketsHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
PolymarketStarship launches humans to Mars before 2030?
KalshiHow many Starship launches will occur in 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
The number of Starship family rocket launches must exceed the number of Falcon family launches.
- Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, and any future variations of Falcon are included; Starship cargo, tanker, test, crew, HLS, depot, and any future variations are included.
- All option brackets are inclusive; the total number of Starship family launches in the selected year must be greater than (not equal to) Falcon family launches.
- This will close on the first day of the next year after the condition is met.
- 2 Starship launches
- 96 Falcon launches