Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
2029-2030 36%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
24
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 15, 24, 1:53 AM UTCJan 1, 41, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.5%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
LimitlessHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
PolymarketStarship launches humans to Mars before 2030?
KalshiStortest gap between two SpaceX Starship launches in 2026
Manifold MarketsRules
The number of Starship family rocket launches must exceed the number of Falcon family launches.
- Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, and any future variations of Falcon are included; Starship cargo, tanker, test, crew, HLS, depot, and any future variations are included.
- All option brackets are inclusive; the total number of Starship family launches in the selected year must be greater than (not equal to) Falcon family launches.
- This will close on the first day of the next year after the condition is met.
- 2 Starship launches
- 96 Falcon launches
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In what year will the number of Starship launches exceed the number of Falcon launches??
- Manifold Markets prices 2029-2030 at 36% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In what year will the number of Starship launches exceed the number of Falcon launches? resolve?
- In what year will the number of Starship launches exceed the number of Falcon launches? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2041.
- How is In what year will the number of Starship launches exceed the number of Falcon launches? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The number of Starship family rocket launches must exceed the number of Falcon family launches.