Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (14.3%)
Resolved: Aug 19, 2026, 2:37 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastNo 85.7%
Forecasters
41
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleApr 26, 26, 5:22 AMAug 19, 26, 2:37 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes14.3%
No85.7%
85.7%
14.3%
Rules
I remember on a recent podcast, I heard someone say "everyone will realize they're now living in the future when they start seeing robots walking past them in a few more months"
- This market resolves YES if I'm walking around and a humanoid robot casually crosses my path.
- Little sweeper robots are not enough, nor are the slightly more human looking ones at sushi restaurants
- I will not purposely seek one out, and I will not bet on this market
- Update 2026-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator does travel and plans to visit Las Vegas and other Tier 1 cities within the year, increasing the chances of encountering a humanoid robot.
- Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A humanoid robot must be able to move its arms to do things (not just a mannequin on wheels).
Open markets
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $298.6K
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $73,000 or above98%
- $73,500 or above97.5%
- $61,000 or above97%
+36 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $168.1K
- 24h Vol
- $152.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BMW Championship Winner
- XRP price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Humanoid robot walking around me within a year??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of August 19, 2026.
- When does Humanoid robot walking around me within a year? resolve?
- Humanoid robot walking around me within a year? is scheduled to resolve on August 19, 2026.
- How is Humanoid robot walking around me within a year? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I remember on a recent podcast, I heard someone say "everyone will realize they're now living in the future when they start seeing robots walking past them in a few more months"