How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score?

AIOne-Off

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: 1 (97.6%)

Resolved: Jul 26, 2026, 4:39 PM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

1 97.6%+2.4pt

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 25 days ago

Stale

Jan 2, 24, 7:20 PMJul 26, 26, 4:39 PM

Probability Timeline

00.1%

197.6%

21%

3-40.5%

5-80.3%

>80.5%

+2.4 pts

97.6%

-1.0 pts

3-4

-0.5 pts

0.5%

-0.5 pts

0.5%

5-8

-0.3 pts

0.3%

-0.1 pts

0.1%

Rules

AI achieves its first International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) at least bronze medal in the calendar year X.

In case of such a possibly contentious resolution I plan to poll Manifold Moderators and/or experts in the field whether they would agree with that resolution.
Update 2026-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - 2024 DeepMind AI results: The creator does not plan to count the 2024 DeepMind AI results as a bronze medal (meaning 2024 is not year X), because the AI was not constrained by official competition criteria.

How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score?

AIOne-Off

Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

This market resolved: 1 (97.6%)

Resolved: Jul 26, 2026, 4:39 PM

Provider-verified resolution

CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.

Current community forecast

1 97.6%+2.4pt

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 25 days ago

Stale

Jan 2, 24, 7:20 PMJul 26, 26, 4:39 PM

Probability Timeline

00.1%

197.6%

21%

3-40.5%

5-80.3%

>80.5%

+2.4 pts

97.6%

-1.0 pts

3-4

-0.5 pts

0.5%

-0.5 pts

0.5%

5-8

-0.3 pts

0.3%

-0.1 pts

0.1%

Rules

AI achieves its first International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) at least bronze medal in the calendar year X.

In case of such a possibly contentious resolution I plan to poll Manifold Moderators and/or experts in the field whether they would agree with that resolution.
Update 2026-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - 2024 DeepMind AI results: The creator does not plan to count the 2024 DeepMind AI results as a bronze medal (meaning 2024 is not year X), because the AI was not constrained by official competition criteria.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score??: Manifold Markets prices 1 at 98% as of July 27, 2026.
When does How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score? resolve?: How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score? is scheduled to resolve on July 26, 2026.
How is How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: AI achieves its first International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) at least bronze medal in the calendar year X.

How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score?

How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score?

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