Manifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastLess than 1 month 1%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 days ago
StaleMar 24, 25, 10:55 AMMay 7, 55, 10:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Less than 1 month1%
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KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Rules
He took office on 8 May 2025.
- Intervals are left-closed right-open and based on calendar days in the Vatican time zone, e.g. if he dies or resigns on 7 May 2035 (regardless of the time of the day) then it resolves "Between 3 and 10 years" whereas if he dies or resigns on 8 May 2035 (regardless of the time of the day) then it resolves "Between 10 and 30 years".
- So far, 9 popes reigned for less than 1 month and only 2 reigned for more than 30 years, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope#Lengths_of_papal_reign (but note that that list uses a definition of length which is off by one day with respect to mine).