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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:09 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 62.4%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleNov 20, 25, 8:42 AM UTCDec 31, 31, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2032, there exists at least one new AI accelerator chip series for which the elapsed time between (a) the date a first fully working chip from that series exists in silicon and (b) the date on which at least 1 gigawatt (1 GW) of nameplate power capacity from that series is installed in operational compute clusters worldwide is 100 days or fewer.
- Core definitions
- AI accelerator chip series (“series”)
- A “series” is a family of data‑center‑class AI accelerators (GPUs, ASICs, wafer‑scale engines, multi‑die modules, etc.) from a single vendor that share the same underlying microarchitecture and base die design, even if they come in multiple SKUs.
- Variants that differ only in memory size, binning, cooling, form factor, or minor packaging changes (e.g. PCIe vs SXM; 80GB vs 144GB; air vs liquid cooled) are treated as the same series.
- A major architectural or die change (e.g. “Hopper” → “Blackwell”, “TPU v4” → “TPU v5”, “Ascend 910C” → “Ascend 910D” if based on a substantially new design) counts as a new series with its own clock.
