Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.7%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleDec 27, 25, 12:08 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Chinese government (e.g., NDRC, MIIT, State Council, or other central authority) officially announces or implements a hard national ceiling on refined lead smelting/refining capacity or annual production output.
- This must be modeled after the aluminum sector's 45 million tonne annual capacity cap (introduced in 2017), meaning:
- An explicit numerical limit (e.g., X million tonnes per year) on total national capacity or output.
- Enforced via strict controls like "capacity replacement" rules (new capacity only if equal/old capacity is retired), bans on net new additions, or direct production quotas.
- YES examples:
