What are the current odds for China cap on copper smelting by EOY 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 68.5% as of October 22, 2026.

When does China cap on copper smelting by EOY 2026? resolve?

China cap on copper smelting by EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria:

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 1:48 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 68.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Dec 27, 25, 12:03 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution Criteria:

This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Chinese government (e.g., NDRC, MIIT, State Council, or other central authority) officially announces or implements a hard national ceiling on refined copper smelting/refining capacity or annual production output.
This must be modeled after the aluminum sector's 45 million tonne annual capacity cap (introduced in 2017), meaning:
An explicit numerical limit (e.g., X million tonnes per year) on total national capacity or output.
Enforced via strict controls like "capacity replacement" rules (new capacity only if equal/old capacity is retired), bans on net new additions, or direct production quotas.
YES examples: