By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt??

Manifold Markets prices 2028 at 25.5% as of October 29, 2026.

When does By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt? resolve?

By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt? is scheduled to resolve on July 20, 2030.

How is By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Same criteria as the Scott Alexander market. "Make a movie sequel to Firefly"

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

#1 Spotify song this week? (October 30)

• Housewife - Tate McRae-0.5pt100%
• Ain't In LA - ADÉLA0%
• BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky-0.1pt0%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$186.7K

24h Vol

$141.5K

KALSHI

Oscar Winner: Best Picture

• The Odyssey+1.0pt54.5%
• You Can See Everything-1.0pt19.5%
• The Black Ball+1.0pt14.5%

KALSHI

The Mongoose · Rotten Tomatoes score

• Above 5+2.0pt99.5%
• Above 10+23.0pt98.5%
• Above 15+62.0pt92.5%

KALSHI

Dancing with the Stars · Episode 9 Elimination

• Tatyana Ali-10.0pt38.5%
• Julia Stiles-2.0pt38.5%
• Connor Wood-2.0pt

KALSHI

Grammy Winner: Best Contemporary Country Album

• Flow State+60.0pt46.5%
• Dandelion-20.0pt53%
• The Great Divide+1.0pt

KALSHI

Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date

• Before January 2028+1.0pt99.5%
• Before July 202798.5%
• Before 2027-1.0pt96.5%

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