Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54.9%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 54 minutes ago
LaggingMay 7, 25, 5:01 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 5:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27?
Manifold MarketsAny frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
AWS and Microsoft have both provided lots of data center capacity for AI products and research, but unlike Meta and Google, they do not appear to have their own models that are competitive with the state of the art and available for use by the public.
- Will this change?
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 55% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model? resolve?
- AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: AWS and Microsoft have both provided lots of data center capacity for AI products and research, but unlike Meta and Google, they do not appear to have their own models that are competitive with the state of the art and available for use by the public.