Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.9%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJul 1, 25, 10:35 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
PolymarketNuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes?
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Manifold MarketsWill any country become a new nuclear power in 2026?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, the cumulative nameplate capacity of binding power purchase agreements (PPAs) for nuclear electricity explicitly linked to AI data center operations reaches or exceeds 15 gigawatts (GW).
- To qualify, an agreement must:
- Be legally binding, not a memorandum of understanding (MoU) or letter of intent (LOI).
- Involve named counterparties, with at least one party identified as a cloud provider, AI lab, or hyperscaler.
- Explicitly cite AI, cloud computing, or data centers as the intended energy use.
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
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- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
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- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026? resolve?
- Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria