Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 61.9%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJul 1, 25, 10:35 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, the cumulative nameplate capacity of binding power purchase agreements (PPAs) for nuclear electricity explicitly linked to AI data center operations reaches or exceeds 15 gigawatts (GW).
- To qualify, an agreement must:
- Be legally binding, not a memorandum of understanding (MoU) or letter of intent (LOI).
- Involve named counterparties, with at least one party identified as a cloud provider, AI lab, or hyperscaler.
- Explicitly cite AI, cloud computing, or data centers as the intended energy use.
