KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Trump (5+ times) (99%)
Resolved: Sep 15, 2026, 11:57 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
Trump (5+ times) 99%Leader of 17 outcomes
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$131.9K
Liquidity
$92.1K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleSep 15, 26, 5:30 PM UTCSep 16, 26, 3:22 PM UTC
Probability Timeline
Emmy / Emmys9%
Fed / Federal Reserve / Interest Rate60%
Diesel58%
Inflation88%
Saudi66%
Yemen / Yemeni / Houthi95%
Trump (5+ times)88%
OpenAI91%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline72%
Supreme Court88%
Hoax61%
AI / Artificial Intelligence79%
Kash / Patel88%
Kennedy79%
Anthropic / Claude60%
Iran (3+ times)61%
Space0%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
9%
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If any host or reporter says Trump (5+ times) as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- Video of the ABC World News Tonight with David Muir will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the ABC World News Tonight with David Muir will be used.
- Payout Criterion: The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
- Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
- For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
