Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74.5%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleDec 29, 25, 10:26 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
Manifold MarketsMajor news story in Sep 2026?
KalshiWhat news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?
Manifold MarketsWho will be in the US News top 20 universities?
KalshiWill Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketRules
"Major" here will refer to any outlet with a Wikipedia page.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64+5.0pt46.1%
- 65-89+5.0pt29.4%
- <40-3.0pt15.7%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $41.4K
- 24h Vol
- $13.7K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No99%
- Yes-49.0pt1%
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $8.6K
KALSHIWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
- No87%
- Yes+1.0pt13%
- Total Vol
- $9.7K
- 24h Vol
- $1.7K
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No-2.0pt76%
- Yes+2.0pt24%
- Total Vol
- $16.4K
- 24h Vol
- $707.5
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Harry Styles and Zoë Kravitz: Marriage date
- Will Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Is Earth flat?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I be published in a major news outlet by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will I be published in a major news outlet by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will I be published in a major news outlet by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will I be published in a major news outlet by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: "Major" here will refer to any outlet with a Wikipedia page.