KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilitySan Diego, CA 89%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
54 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$29.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
37.0% / 43.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
May 13, 26, 11:00 PMDec 31, 26, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Sacramento, CA44%
Compare venues· San Diego, CA
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 89% | — | $1.1K | $29.8K | 11 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets85% match · verified | — | 100% | — | — | — | 11 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Where will Waymo be available in 2026?
5mo
100%
100%
100%
+16 more outcomes
Community forecast33 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If Waymo is operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within Washington, DC before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- "Operating commercial services" means that members of the general public can download the Waymo app (or access Waymo through a partner app), request a ride with pickup and dropoff locations within Washington, DC, and receive autonomous vehicle service for a fee.
- The service must be available to the general public without requiring special invitation codes, waitlist approval, or participation in testing programs, though geographic coverage within Washington, DC may be limited to certain areas.
- Services operating exclusively with safety drivers present do not satisfy the Payout Criterion; the service must offer fully autonomous rides (without a human safety driver) at least some of the time.
- Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes:
- Waymo launches public commercial service in any part of Washington, DC Waymo expands from adjacent areas into Washington, DC limits Waymo operates 24/7 service or limited hours service within Washington, DC Waymo offers service through the Uber app to all users in Washington, DC Service is geofenced to only certain neighborhoods but is public
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.1kJul 227d of dataJul 28
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If Waymo is operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within Washington, DC before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- "Operating commercial services" means that members of the general public can download the Waymo app (or access Waymo through a partner app), request a ride with pickup and dropoff locations within Washington, DC, and receive autonomous vehicle service for a fee.
- The service must be available to the general public without requiring special invitation codes, waitlist approval, or participation in testing programs, though geographic coverage within Washington, DC may be limited to certain areas.
- Services operating exclusively with safety drivers present do not satisfy the Payout Criterion; the service must offer fully autonomous rides (without a human safety driver) at least some of the time.
- Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes:
- Waymo launches public commercial service in any part of Washington, DC Waymo expands from adjacent areas into Washington, DC limits Waymo operates 24/7 service or limited hours service within Washington, DC Waymo offers service through the Uber app to all users in Washington, DC Service is geofenced to only certain neighborhoods but is public