KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Tampa, FL (99%)
Resolved: Oct 14, 2026, 8:03 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Tampa, FL
At 7 days out
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At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 14, 2026, 7:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Minneapolis, MN3%
New Orleans, LA9%
Las Vegas, NV77%
St. Louis, MO8%
Baltimore, MD4%
Chicago, IL4%
Tokyo, Japan3%
Detroit, MI10%
Tampa, FLWon
San Diego, CALost
Denver, COLost
Las Vegas, NVLost
Sacramento, CALost
Detroit, MILost
Philadelphia, PALost
St. Louis, MOLost
New Orleans, LALost
Seattle, WALost
Charlotte, NCLost
Washington, DCLost
Portland, ORLost
Pittsburgh, PALost
New York, NYLost
London, UKLost
Boston, MALost
Baltimore, MDLost
Chicago, ILLost
Minneapolis, MNLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Waymo is operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within the named outcome before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Waymo
- "Operating commercial services" means that members of the general public can download the Waymo app (or access Waymo through a partner app), request a ride with pickup and dropoff locations within the named outcome, and receive autonomous vehicle service for a fee.
- The service must be available to the general public without requiring special invitation codes, waitlist approval, or participation in testing programs, though geographic coverage within the named outcome may be limited to certain areas.
- Services operating exclusively with safety drivers present do not satisfy the Payout Criterion; the service must offer fully autonomous rides (without a human safety driver) at least some of the time.
- Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes:
- Waymo launches public commercial service in any part of the named outcome Waymo expands from adjacent areas into the named outcome limits Waymo operates 24/7 service or limited hours service within the named outcome Waymo offers service through the Uber app to all users in the named outcome Service is geofenced to only certain neighborhoods but is public