Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"?
TechOne-Off5yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75.2%
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7
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 43 minutes ago
May 8, 26, 8:02 PM UTCJun 30, 32, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
A recurring claim in the AV-skeptic debate is that traffic deaths have not declined in any city where Waymo operates (source).
- Resolves YES if, in calendar year 2030, traffic fatalities have NOT declined relative to each city's pre-commercial-launch baseline year in any of the 5 largest Waymo deployment cities.
- Resolves NO if at least one such city shows a decline relative to its pre-Waymo baseline.
- The 5 cities (locked in at market creation): Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Atlanta.
- Pre-commercial-launch baseline year: the full calendar year before paid public Waymo service began in that city.
- Resolution source: NHTSA FARS data, CY2030 vs each city's baseline year.