Current community forecast
No 74.1%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMay 8, 26, 8:02 PM UTCJun 30, 32, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
A recurring claim in the AV-skeptic debate is that traffic deaths have not declined in any city where Waymo operates (source).
- Resolves YES if, in calendar year 2030, traffic fatalities have NOT declined relative to each city's pre-commercial-launch baseline year in any of the 5 largest Waymo deployment cities.
- Resolves NO if at least one such city shows a decline relative to its pre-Waymo baseline.
- The 5 cities (locked in at market creation): Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Atlanta.
- Pre-commercial-launch baseline year: the full calendar year before paid public Waymo service began in that city.
- Resolution source: NHTSA FARS data, CY2030 vs each city's baseline year.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 74% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"? resolve?
- Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"? is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2032.
- How is Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A recurring claim in the AV-skeptic debate is that traffic deaths have not declined in any city where Waymo operates (source).