Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastSan Diego 100%Leader of 19 outcomes
Forecasters
37
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleDec 1, 25, 10:25 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If the Waymo service area overlaps with the city limits at all, that's good enough.
- If only a minority of people have access, it will resolved based on whether any of them got this access by luck or signing up early, rather than by being Waymo employees, journalists, or famous.
- If the cars arrive with Waymo employees in them, or even in the driver seats, the answer resolves Yes if i can find any credible evidence of 1 trip where it's plausible the car was doing more than half of the driving work.
- If it's hard to find evidence of any such trips, it'll resolve No. When Waymo launches somewhere, that answer will resolve Yes.
- If they suspend service etc, it will still stay a Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Where will Waymo operate in 2026? · Las Vegas, NV 87%
