Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 14, 2026, 9:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastMiami 100%Leader of 19 outcomes
Forecasters
33
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 days ago
StaleDec 1, 25, 10:25 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Berkeley40%
Compare venues· Miami
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall85% match · verified | Low | 89% | — | $17.5 | $29.2K | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 100% | — | — | — | 12 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Where will Waymo operate in 2026?
4.0 pts5mo
89%
-3.0pt85%
-4.0pt80%
+7 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$51.5K
24h Vol$17.5
KALSHIRules
If the Waymo service area overlaps with the city limits at all, that's good enough.
- If only a minority of people have access, it will resolved based on whether any of them got this access by luck or signing up early, rather than by being Waymo employees, journalists, or famous.
- If the cars arrive with Waymo employees in them, or even in the driver seats, the answer resolves Yes if i can find any credible evidence of 1 trip where it's plausible the car was doing more than half of the driving work.
- If it's hard to find evidence of any such trips, it'll resolve No.
- When Waymo launches somewhere, that answer will resolve Yes.
- If they suspend service etc, it will still stay a Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$282Jul 132d of dataJul 14
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If the Waymo service area overlaps with the city limits at all, that's good enough.
- If only a minority of people have access, it will resolved based on whether any of them got this access by luck or signing up early, rather than by being Waymo employees, journalists, or famous.
- If the cars arrive with Waymo employees in them, or even in the driver seats, the answer resolves Yes if i can find any credible evidence of 1 trip where it's plausible the car was doing more than half of the driving work.
- If it's hard to find evidence of any such trips, it'll resolve No.
- When Waymo launches somewhere, that answer will resolve Yes.
- If they suspend service etc, it will still stay a Yes.