Which will be the first year the USA has less than 15k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024)
Society & Culture6yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNever, or only in 2033 or later 69.2%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 16, 25, 6:52 PM UTCFeb 2, 33, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Each bucket is two chances to win! All years are inclusive
- Every calendar year Jan - Dec is a measurement point.
- If you think it won't happen, even including 2032, then bet the option for it not happening.
- I've chosen a restricted range so that skeptics have a shorter term option.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Total Vol
- $10.2K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.5K
- 24h Vol
- $487.1
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which will be the first year the USA has less than 15k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024)?
- Manifold Markets prices Never, or only in 2033 or later at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which will be the first year the USA has less than 15k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024) resolve?
- Which will be the first year the USA has less than 15k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024) is scheduled to resolve on February 2, 2033.
- How is Which will be the first year the USA has less than 15k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Each bucket is two chances to win! All years are inclusive