Which will be the first year the USA has less than 15k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024)
Society & Culture6yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 12:39 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNever, or only in 2033 or later 69.2%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleFeb 16, 25, 6:52 PM UTCFeb 2, 33, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Each bucket is two chances to win! All years are inclusive
- Every calendar year Jan - Dec is a measurement point.
- If you think it won't happen, even including 2032, then bet the option for it not happening.
- I've chosen a restricted range so that skeptics have a shorter term option.
