KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 4.31% or above (83%)
Resolved: Sep 1, 2026, 8:33 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 5:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
4.45% or above99%
4.47% or above99%
4.31% or above83%
4.33% or above99%
4.35% or above89%
4.37% or above85%
4.39% or above93%
4.41% or above97%
4.43% or above80%
4.49% or above20%
4.51% or above7%
4.45% or aboveLost
4.47% or aboveLost
4.33% or aboveLost
4.35% or aboveLost
4.37% or aboveLost
4.43% or aboveLost
4.39% or aboveLost
4.41% or aboveLost
4.31% or aboveWon
4.49% or aboveLost
4.59% or aboveLost
4.51% or aboveLost
4.55% or aboveLost
4.57% or aboveLost
4.53% or aboveLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.30% on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Aug 31, 2026, or one week following Aug 31, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.32% on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.34% on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.36% on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.38% on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.