KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 5.35% or above (99%)
Resolved: Sep 15, 2026, 10:02 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
5.35% or above
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
51%
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 15, 2026, 7:25 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
5.37% or above48%
5.39% or above11%
5.41% or above3%
5.35% or above76%
5.33% or above71%
5.31% or above89%
5.43% or above6%
5.21% or above98%
5.23% or above98%
5.29% or above94%
5.25% or above99%
5.27% or above0%
5.45% or above0%
5.47% or above0%
5.49% or above0%
5.35% or aboveWon
5.33% or aboveLost
5.31% or aboveLost
5.29% or aboveLost
5.25% or aboveLost
5.27% or aboveLost
5.21% or aboveLost
5.23% or aboveLost
5.37% or aboveLost
5.39% or aboveLost
5.43% or aboveLost
5.41% or aboveLost
5.45% or aboveLost
5.47% or aboveLost
5.49% or aboveLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
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PolymarketHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
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PolymarketMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.20% on Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 15, 2026, or one week following Sep 15, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.22% on Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.24% on Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.26% on Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.28% on Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
