KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 4.67% or above (91%)
Resolved: Sep 17, 2026, 10:02 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 17, 2026, 7:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
4.65% or above 99%Leader of 25 outcomes
Market quality
25 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$5.3K
Liquidity
$4.1K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleSep 16, 26, 7:30 PM UTCSep 17, 26, 7:30 PM UTC
Probability Timeline
4.73% or above30%
4.69% or above1%
4.71% or above54%
4.75% or above17%
4.67% or above77%
4.77% or above22%
4.65% or above67%
4.79% or above13%
4.59% or above99%
4.61% or above88%
4.63% or above78%
4.51% or above99%
4.53% or above99%
4.55% or above99%
4.57% or above99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
91%
58%
58%
28%
19%
11%
7%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026?
KalshiHow high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
KalshiHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
PolymarketHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?
PolymarketHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
PolymarketHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
LimitlessMacro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.50% on Sep 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 17, 2026, or one week following Sep 17, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.52% on Sep 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.54% on Sep 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.56% on Sep 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.58% on Sep 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $499.2K
- 24h Vol
- $37.8K
KALSHISOFR for September 17, 2026
- 3.66% or Above94.3%
- Exactly 3.63%0.9%
- Exactly 3.62%0.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8K
- 24h Vol
- $25.8K
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%-1.6pt9%
- Below 4.73%+4.3pt7%
- Below 4.64%-0.5pt4%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich countries’ U.S. Treasury holdings will increase in 2026?
- United Kingdom+8.0pt82%
- UAE82%
- France63%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIHow high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
- 5.31% or above99%
- 5.32% or above99%
- 5.33% or above99%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.2K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
POLYMARKETHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 5.24%-3.0pt33%
- Below 5.21%+2.5pt18%
- Below 5.18%+6.5pt11%
+6 more outcomes
- How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 18, 2026?
- How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 18, 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 17, 2026??
- Kalshi prices 4.65% or above at 99% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 17, 2026? resolve?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 17, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 17, 2026.
- How is 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 17, 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.50% on Sep 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.