KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
4.81% or above 99%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
41 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$7.4K
Liquidity
$4.7K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 15, 26, 7:30 PM UTCSep 16, 26, 7:30 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 30, 2026?
KalshiHow low will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
Kalshi7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 18, 2026?
KalshiHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
PolymarketHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?
PolymarketHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
PolymarketRules
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.80% on Sep 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Department of the Treasury
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Sep 16, 2026, or one week following Sep 16, 2026.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.82% on Sep 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.84% on Sep 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.86% on Sep 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.88% on Sep 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $449.2K
- 24h Vol
- $28.6K
KALSHI2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 16, 2026?
- 4.55% or above99%
- 4.51% or above99%
- 4.53% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.6K
- 24h Vol
- $8.6K
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%+45.5pt100%
- 4.85%+18.1pt100%
- 4.88%+58.0pt100%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHI5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 16, 2026?
- 4.74% or above99%
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.8K
- 24h Vol
- $3.8K
POLYMARKETHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 5.40%93%
- 5.45%-4.5pt76%
- 5.70%+33.0pt56%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHI30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 16, 2026?
- 5.21% or above99%
- 5.23% or above99%
- 5.25% or above99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3K
- 24h Vol
- $2.9K
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 16, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 18, 2026?
- How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 18, 2026?
- 10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Sep 30, 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 16, 2026??
- Kalshi prices 4.81% or above at 99% as of September 16, 2026.
- When does 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 16, 2026? resolve?
- 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 16, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 16, 2026.
- How is 10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 16, 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.80% on Sep 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.