KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 106 61.9%Leader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
41 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$200
Liquidity
$200
Low liquiditySpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 28, 26, 4:00 PM UTCOct 7, 26, 2:29 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Starbucks Credit Card Spend in September
KalshiAmazon Credit Card Spend in September
KalshiWalmart Credit Card Spend in September
KalshiCredit Card Competition act enacted before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?
Manifold Markets[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the Carbon Arc Temu Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Carbon Arc
- For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the first value reported by Carbon Arc.
- Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome.
- The index measures year-over-year change, where 100 means Temu Credit Card Spend was equal to the same month last year.
- Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% more spend than year prior, 97 = 3% decline from year prior.
- The index is measured by Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, matched to the same period of the prior year.
Open markets
Business & Corporate
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $354.3K
- 24h Vol
- $354.2K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+4.0pt50%
- 65-89+27.0pt47.1%
- 90-114-2.4pt2.9%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 more outcomes
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-219-1.0pt18.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.2pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 more outcomes
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Temu Credit Card Spend in September?
- Kalshi prices Above 106 at 62% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Temu Credit Card Spend in September resolve?
- Temu Credit Card Spend in September is scheduled to resolve on October 7, 2026.
- How is Temu Credit Card Spend in September settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Carbon Arc Temu Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.