Current implied probability
No 73%
Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$330.3
Low liquidityBid / Ask
26.0% / 31.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jul 8, 26, 12:00 AMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes27%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 73% | +53pt | $0 | $330.3 | 13 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket72% match · auto | Low | 81% | +61pt | $0 | $1K | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Spain snap election called in 2026?
5mo
80.2%
19.8%
41 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$32.7K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETRules
If Spain officially announces a snap election for its national legislature or head of government before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A "snap election" is a national election for the legislature or head of government called to occur at least 90 days earlier than either the previously scheduled election date or the latest constitutionally or legally required date.
- The announcement must be made by a person or body with the legal authority to call such elections, must specify an actual election date, and must occur after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, regardless of when the election is scheduled to take place.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$34Jul 88d of dataJul 23
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If Spain officially announces a snap election for its national legislature or head of government before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A "snap election" is a national election for the legislature or head of government called to occur at least 90 days earlier than either the previously scheduled election date or the latest constitutionally or legally required date.
- The announcement must be made by a person or body with the legal authority to call such elections, must specify an actual election date, and must occur after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, regardless of when the election is scheduled to take place.