KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above $460 billion 99%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$59.9
Liquidity
$3.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 29, 26, 1:28 AM UTCMay 11, 27, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Shopify gross merchandise volume in Q3
KalshiMercadoLibre gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026
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KalshiPolymarket exceeds $4B monthly trading volume in Dec 2026?
Manifold Markets$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketRules
If Shopify Inc. reports Above 460000000000 gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Fiscal.ai
- This market refers to the annual figure reported in Shopify Inc.'s full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If Shopify Inc. reports Above 470000000000 gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Shopify Inc. reports Above 480000000000 gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M96%
- $25M95%
- $50M85%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $190.5K
- 24h Vol
- $190.5K
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.5pt96%
- Apple-0.1pt3%
- Alphabet+0.2pt1%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+8.0pt56.4%
- 65-89+13.0pt33.7%
- 90-114+2.1pt5.9%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-19918.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt17.8%
- 160-17913.9%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $211.6K
- 24h Vol
- $45.2K
KALSHICalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Above 680,000+4.0pt98%
- Above 690,00094%
- Above 710,000-1.0pt28%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.2K
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest Company end of December 2026?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Chewy active customers in Q2
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Shopify gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026?
- Kalshi prices Above $460 billion at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Shopify gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026 resolve?
- Shopify gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026 is scheduled to resolve on May 11, 2027.
- How is Shopify gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Shopify Inc. reports Above 460000000000 gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.