South Dakota Republican Governor runoff margin of victory?
85.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection12mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityLarry Rhoden, ≥12% 86.1%+85.0ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$9.1K
Liquidity
$14.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
99.0% / 100.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 41 minutes ago
Jun 4, 26, 7:30 PMJul 28, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Larry Rhoden, ≥12%99%
Volume trend
$9.1kJul 228d of dataJul 29
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If the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff falls within 12% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Toby Doeden minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Toby Doeden if Toby Doeden wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Toby Doeden loses.
- If Toby Doeden wins, the margin will be positive; if Toby Doeden loses, the margin will be negative; if Toby Doeden ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Toby Doeden runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.