Current implied probability
David Miliband 6%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$592.5
Liquidity
$3.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 5.0%
Spread
66.7%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jul 9, 26, 6:43 PMJan 8, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
David Miliband6%
Compare venues· Ed Miliband
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Polymarket
Next UK Foreign Secretary in 2026?
9.0%5mo
+1.5%56%
50%
50%
+34 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$280.4K
24h Vol$11.8K
POLYMARKET
Also available on Smarkets
Next Foreign Secretary In 2026
55%
7.4%
40 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$3.8K
24h Vol$478
SMARKETSRules
If No new person formally holds the position of UK Foreign Secretary before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded.
- For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion.
- If Wes Streeting formally holds the position of UK Foreign Secretary before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If David Miliband formally holds the position of UK Foreign Secretary before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If John Healey formally holds the position of UK Foreign Secretary before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.2k67.0%POLYMARKETNo0x17ed…c08714d ago
POLYMARKETNo0x17ed…c08714d agoVolume trend
$592Jul 99d of dataJul 17
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If No new person formally holds the position of UK Foreign Secretary before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded.
- For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion.
- If Wes Streeting formally holds the position of UK Foreign Secretary before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If David Miliband formally holds the position of UK Foreign Secretary before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If John Healey formally holds the position of UK Foreign Secretary before Jan 1, 2027, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.