KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Labour (99%)
Resolved: Jun 19, 2026, 3:28 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Labour
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
89%
ConsensusCurrent implied probabilityLabour 95.2%+10.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$164.1K
Liquidity
$10.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
- / 1.0%
Market data
Updated 38 days ago
StaleMay 16, 26, 11:30 AMJan 1, 28, 3:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Labour99%
Reform UK9%
1%
95.2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Labour
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Smarkets
Makerfield By-Election - Winner
Closed
91.3%
8.4%
0.2%
14 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
SMARKETS
Also available on Polymarket
Makerfield by-election Winner
12.9 ptsClosed
Resolved
Andy Burnham (100%)
+12.9pt100%
0%
0%
+30 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$8.8M
24h Vol$5K
POLYMARKETRules
If the Labour party wins the 2026 Makerfield by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If the Labour party wins the 2026 Makerfield by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.