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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Keir Starmer departure announced?
Keir Starmer departure announced?

Keir Starmer departure announced?

2.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsEurope19d
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Before Jul 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026 15%+2.0%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$136.3

Liquidity

$7.2K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

15.0% / 17.0%

Spread

13.3%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Feb 5, 26, 3:00 PMJul 1, 26, 3:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Before Jul 1, 202615%

Rules

If Keir Starmer has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom or has actually left as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office.
  • Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official.
  • The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.
  • "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal.
  • Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office.

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Rules

If Keir Starmer has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom or has actually left as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office.
  • Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official.
  • The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.
  • "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal.
  • Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office.