KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probabilityRuben Gallego 3%-2.0ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
10 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$59.8
Liquidity
$892.6
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 100.0%
Market data
Updated 25 days ago
StaleApr 14, 26, 4:00 PMJul 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Ruben Gallego
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 3% | — | $59.8 | $892.6 | 25 days ago | |
 Manifold Markets82% match · auto | — | 0% | — | — | — | 19 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Who will leave Congress before July? (Kalshi)
Closed
Resolved
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (100%)
100%
0%
0%
+2 more outcomes
Community forecast6 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If Ruben Gallego leaves as Senator before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ruben Gallego must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No."
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If Ruben Gallego leaves as Senator before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ruben Gallego must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No."