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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Regulation
  3. Will legislation restricting institutional single-family home investment become law?
Will legislation restricting institutional single-family home investment become law?

Will legislation restricting institutional single-family home investment become law?

9.0% (24h)RegulationOne-OffPoliticsUS Politics19d
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Before Jul 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026 19%-9.0%
Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0.2

Liquidity

$351.2

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

20.0% / 26.0%

Spread

30.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 7 minutes ago

May 21, 26, 5:00 PMJul 1, 26, 3:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Before Jul 1, 202619%

Rules

If a bill becomes law that imposes an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes (including if the tax is only imposed on newly bought homes) or bans investment firms from owning single-family homes outright (or which bans buying new homes) before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • An example of such a bill is here.
  • Such legislation can have an assets under management or net value requirement for the funds and still be included within the Payout Criterion (e.g. it only applies to funds with assets under management of at least $50 million).
  • Such legislation may also only tax certain assets, e.g. only second and third homes but not first owned by a firm.
  • If a bill becomes law that imposes an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes (including if the tax is only imposed on newly bought homes) or bans investment firms from owning single-family homes outright (or which bans buying new homes) before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If a bill becomes law that imposes an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes (including if the tax is only imposed on newly bought homes) or bans investment firms from owning single-family homes outright (or which bans buying new homes) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Rules

If a bill becomes law that imposes an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes (including if the tax is only imposed on newly bought homes) or bans investment firms from owning single-family homes outright (or which bans buying new homes) before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • An example of such a bill is here.
  • Such legislation can have an assets under management or net value requirement for the funds and still be included within the Payout Criterion (e.g. it only applies to funds with assets under management of at least $50 million).
  • Such legislation may also only tax certain assets, e.g. only second and third homes but not first owned by a firm.
  • If a bill becomes law that imposes an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes (including if the tax is only imposed on newly bought homes) or bans investment firms from owning single-family homes outright (or which bans buying new homes) before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If a bill becomes law that imposes an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes (including if the tax is only imposed on newly bought homes) or bans investment firms from owning single-family homes outright (or which bans buying new homes) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.