KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Before Jul 16, 2026 (99%)
Resolved: Jul 14, 2026, 3:15 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- Before Jul 16, 2026
- Recorded
- Jul 16, 2026, 7:39 AM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probabilityBefore Jan 1, 2027 100%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$276.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
99.0% / 100.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 13 days ago
StaleJun 24, 26, 5:00 PMJul 16, 26, 3:59 AM
Probability Timeline
Before Jun 28, 20261%
Before Jul 4, 20261%
Before Jan 1, 2027100%
Before Aug 1, 202699%
Before Jul 16, 202699%
99%
1%
5%
1%
3%
99%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Before Jan 1, 2027
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 100% | — | $1K | $276.1K | 13 days ago | |
 Manifold Markets75% match · auto | — | 98% | — | — | — | 16 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
By what date will the 21st Century Road to Housing Act become law?
5mo
+6.1pt97.9%
+6.9pt97.8%
+6.5pt97.8%
+4 more outcomes
Community forecast6 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If a bill becomes law that imposes an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes (including if the tax is only imposed on newly bought homes) or bans investment firms from owning single-family homes outright (or which bans buying new homes) before Jun 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An example of such a bill is here.
- Such legislation can have an assets under management or net value requirement for the funds and still be included within the Payout Criterion (e.g. it only applies to funds with assets under management of at least $50 million).
- Such legislation may also only tax certain assets, e.g. only second and third homes but not first owned by a firm.
- Clarification: A bill satisfies the Payout Criterion if it establishes a baseline prohibition or tax on institutional investors buying single-family homes, regardless of specific statutory carve-outs, asset exemptions, or firm-size thresholds.
- For example, the May 14 House-amended version of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act qualifies because it explicitly bans these purchases, and the inclusion of various transaction exceptions (such as build-to-rent programs) does not disqualify it.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$5.0k99.9%KALSHIBefore Jan 1, 2027 — Yes17d ago
KALSHIBefore Jan 1, 2027 — Yes17d ago$1.3k99.9%KALSHIBefore Jan 1, 2027 — Yes17d ago
KALSHIBefore Jan 1, 2027 — Yes17d ago$4.8k98.0%KALSHIBefore Jul 16, 2026 — Yes19d ago
KALSHIBefore Jul 16, 2026 — Yes19d ago$2.9k98.0%KALSHIBefore Jul 7, 2026 — No22d ago
KALSHIBefore Jul 7, 2026 — No22d agoVolume trend
$1.0kJul 213d of dataJul 14
Related Markets
Will the SAVE Act become law?
$488SAVE Act becomes law?: 7.5%
GEMINI
GEMINI
How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
$441.5Above 60: 30%KALSHI
KALSHI
FISA Section 702 reauthorized by which date?
$324.5June 30: 0%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill members of Congress be banned from trading stocks before 2027?
$115.1Yes: 22.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many states will legalize medical marijuana before it becomes legal federally?
$10038: 21.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will California’s billionaire tax take effect?
$56.6Yes: 31%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
CFTC Flags ‘Cookie-Cutter’ Self-Certification in Prediction MarketsBlockchain Reporter
HashKey MENA Secures VARA Approval for Crypto Derivatives as Regulated Futures Market GrowsBlockchain Reporter
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
Russia passes landmark crypto bill allowing regulated retail tradingThe Block
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraphRules
If a bill becomes law that imposes an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes (including if the tax is only imposed on newly bought homes) or bans investment firms from owning single-family homes outright (or which bans buying new homes) before Jun 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An example of such a bill is here.
- Such legislation can have an assets under management or net value requirement for the funds and still be included within the Payout Criterion (e.g. it only applies to funds with assets under management of at least $50 million).
- Such legislation may also only tax certain assets, e.g. only second and third homes but not first owned by a firm.
- Clarification: A bill satisfies the Payout Criterion if it establishes a baseline prohibition or tax on institutional investors buying single-family homes, regardless of specific statutory carve-outs, asset exemptions, or firm-size thresholds.
- For example, the May 14 House-amended version of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act qualifies because it explicitly bans these purchases, and the inclusion of various transaction exceptions (such as build-to-rent programs) does not disqualify it.