Current implied probability
Count Binface Party 66.1%+4.0ptLeader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$719
Liquidity
$23K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
76.0% / 78.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jul 9, 26, 3:30 PMAug 13, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Count Binface Party78%
Compare venues· Tony Mack
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall80% match · auto | Medium | 1% | 0pt | $15.8K | $324.5K | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | Medium | 1% | 0pt | $719 | $23K | 12 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Clacton by-election: 2nd place
1.5 pts11mo
+1.5pt78%
50%
50%
+50 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$298K
24h Vol$15.8K
POLYMARKETRules
If Reform UK finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Clacton by-election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place) For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order
- In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities).
- Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists.
- Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received.
- If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.6k78.0%POLYMARKETWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? — YesStraddleSeller17h ago
POLYMARKETWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? — YesStraddleSeller17h ago$3.2k75.2%POLYMARKETWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? — Yesharrisonhohman84d ago
POLYMARKETWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? — Yesharrisonhohman84d ago$2.8k94.4%POLYMARKETWill Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? — NoTest66912d ago
POLYMARKETWill Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? — NoTest66912d ago$1.1k90.5%POLYMARKETWill Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? — Nogroth17d ago
POLYMARKETWill Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? — Nogroth17d ago$1.2k80.6%POLYMARKETWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? — YesProfessionalPunter19d ago
POLYMARKETWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? — YesProfessionalPunter19d agoVolume trend
$719Jul 919d of dataJul 27
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If Reform UK finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Clacton by-election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place) For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order
- In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities).
- Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists.
- Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received.
- If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.