KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Alibaba 81.9%-1.0ptLeader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.5K
Liquidity
$23K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Aug 3, 26, 3:30 PMAug 31, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Rules
If Moonshot is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Aug 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- Qualifying Chinese AI companies are defined as a company whose global or primary operational headquarters is located in mainland China.
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
- If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Top Chinese AI Company this month?
- Kalshi prices Alibaba at 82% as of August 26, 2026.
- When does Top Chinese AI Company this month resolve?
- Top Chinese AI Company this month is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 2026.
- How is Top Chinese AI Company this month settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Moonshot is the Highest Ranked Chinese AI Company model on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) on Aug 31, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
