KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Tax Cut / Cut Tax (99%)
Resolved: Sep 11, 2026, 1:36 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Tax Cut / Cut Tax
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
99%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 11, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Manufacture / Manufacturing48%
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime12%
Inflation80%
Iran / Iranian39%
Tax Cut / Cut Tax63%
Trump Account72%
Tariff1%
Afford / Affordable / Affordability15%
Tax Cut / Cut TaxWon
Trump (3+ times)Lost
Manufacture / ManufacturingLost
BidenLost
Trump AccountLost
GDPLost
DemocratLost
InflationLost
TrillionLost
Afford / Affordable / AffordabilityLost
Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeLost
Oil / Gas / GasolineLost
ProductivityLost
Event does not qualifyLost
Crypto / Bitcoin / CryptocurrencyLost
China / ChineseLost
Iran / IranianLost
Stock MarketLost
TariffLost
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PolymarketRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the RNC Midterm Convention using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the RNC Midterm Convention will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Scott Bessent speaking in an official capacity.