KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityPat Ryan 94.9%-2.2pt
Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$630
Liquidity
$2.5K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
4.4% / 8.6%
Spread
4.2 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jul 1, 25, 9:00 PMNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Jacqueline Auringer5%
Compare venues· Pat Ryan
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 93% | — | $630 | $2.5K | 18 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket60% match · verified | Low | 90% | — | $0 | $14.2K | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
NY-18 House Election Winner
3mo
90%
10%
0%
+5 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$34.6K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETRules
If the House member sworn in for NY-18 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the House member sworn in for NY-18 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$630Jul 510d of dataJul 27
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If the House member sworn in for NY-18 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the House member sworn in for NY-18 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.