PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 80.6%+4.5ptFührend unter 7 OptionenMargenbereinigt: Die Rohquoten summierten sich auf über 100 % und wurden normalisiert.
Marktqualitat
81 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
4704,3 €
Liquidität
187.968,6 €
Hohe LiquiditätSpread
1.0 pt
Enger SpreadKommentare
2
7d-Änderung
+8.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten
8. Juli 26, 18:53 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before January 1, 2027?
ForecastExStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by January 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by February 28th 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketRegeln
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
- If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “the named outcome.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.