Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
1480+ 88%+8.0ptFührend unter 4 Optionen
1480+ 88%+8.0ptMarktqualitat
47 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
859,3 €
Liquidität
1346 €
Niedrige LiquiditätSpread
5.0 pt
Breiter SpreadKommentare
0
7d-Änderung
+1.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Minuten
22. Sept. 26, 23:40 UTC30. Juni 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Polymarket
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Mindestorder (Anteile):
- 5
- Preisschritt:
- 1 Prozentpunkte
- Gebühren:
- Ja
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketMuse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date
Manifold MarketsWhen will Meta release Muse Spark’s weights?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Meta Muse Spark model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
