Dieser Markt wurde entschieden: September 21
Entschieden: 21.09.2026, 18:20
Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.
Gewinnausgang
September 21
7 Tage vorher
—
24 Stunden vorher
20%
ÜberraschungWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 22.09.2026, 16:22 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
September 195%
September 250%
No release by September 3019%
September 170%
September 280%
September 2219%
September 21100%
September 230%
September 240%
September 270%
September 290%
September 300%
September 21Gewonnen
On or prior to September 9Verloren
September 10Verloren
September 11Verloren
September 12Verloren
September 13Verloren
September 14Verloren
September 15Verloren
September 16Verloren
September 17Verloren
September 18Verloren
September 19Verloren
September 20Verloren
September 22Verloren
September 23Verloren
September 24Verloren
September 25Verloren
September 26Verloren
September 27Verloren
September 28Verloren
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Grok Model (4.8+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketWill "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
LimitlessRegeln
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
