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Veraltet24. Juli 26, 03:01 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027?
Manifold Markets2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)
Manifold MarketsTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsOpen Source market share on Sep 10th
KalshiRegeln
It seems that OpenAI has acquired The Sauce, letting them make models that are cracked at not only finding vulnerabilities, but at exploiting them, too.
- Will the feared come to pass? Will the weights of a model with Mythos-level exploitation abilities (such that anyone with an abliteration tool and a GPU cluster can use them to hack into 2025-era software) be released to the public before the end of 2027?
- (simply scoring high on cyber benchmarks doesn't count; the models must be good at exploiting vulnerabilities in realistic settings to the point where we have stories of the model producing root-granting binaries and such)
- (if the capabilities are latent in the weights but are obfuscated by refusals or surface-level unlearning, then this still resolves YES, although I'd want to wait to see if someone actually elicits them)
- (if the capabilities aren't in the weights (like by gradient routing) but they are present in a private API version of the model, then this resolves NO)
- Update 2026-08-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The model must achieve scores close to or higher than Mythos 5 on both ExploitBench and ExploitGym.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 132.799,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.316,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
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+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
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- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 322.392,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
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- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 75% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027? entschieden?
- Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027? soll am 31. Dezember 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: It seems that OpenAI has acquired The Sauce, letting them make models that are cracked at not only finding vulnerabilities, but at exploiting them, too.