Will "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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Daten vom 26.10.2026, 07:45 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 86.4%
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Compute ratio for SOTA model training workloads by hardware architecture by EOY 2028
Manifold MarketsWill a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a Mission: Impossible film be released without Tom Cruise as Ethan Hunt?
Manifold MarketsNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
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As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post The current SOTA model was released without safety evals is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
