Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 70.7%
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Verzogert22. März 26, 03:03 UTC1. Jan. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will JPMorgan force their employees to use generative AI for analyses, reports or other work in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill inference-time scaling improve the generation of images with correct geometric shapes? (in generative AI)
Manifold MarketsWill any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill someone I know be targeted by a generative AI based scam by EoY 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiTrump renames AI by September 30?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM PT on December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms a generative AI system (e.g., LLM, VLM, VLA) autonomously authorized and executed a successful lethal strike against a human target without a human operator issuing the final execution command.
- Resolution Criteria:
- Full Autonomy: The AI independently identified the target and initiated the strike.
- (Note: If a human was monitoring "on-the-loop" but the AI executed the strike before they could or did intervene, this counts as YES).
- Generative Architecture: The system utilized a transformer-based or multimodal architecture capable of semantic reasoning.
- If the exact architecture is classified, credible reporting must explicitly describe the system as using generative AI, LLMs, VLMs, VLAs, or complex semantic reasoning.
Offene Märkte
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 70.7% (Stand: 24. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? entschieden?
- Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM PT on December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms a generative AI system (e.g., LLM, VLM, VLA) autonomously authorized and executed a successful lethal strike against a human target without a human operator issuing the final execution command.