Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 71.9%
Prognostiker
57
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet29. Sept. 22, 15:45 UTC1. Jan. 40, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a theory of everything be found this century?
Manifold MarketsWill the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegeln
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_everything
- In order for a theory to qualify, it has to have been extensivly tested and have a strong consensus in its favor.
- It also must explain everything fundamental that is in principle explainable.
- (It doesn't have to answer philosophical questions like "why is there something rather than nothing", since that may not be answerable.) In other words, there shouldn't be any physics question where we would not know how to compute an answer.
- (Even if the computation itself would take a very long time.)
- There will of course be many emergent phenomena that we still don't have good models for.
Offene Märkte
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 226.325,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 125.213,7 €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 108.303,7 €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5183 €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 72% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040? entschieden?
- Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040? soll am 1. Januar 2040 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_everything