Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 87.8%
Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet15. Jan. 25, 15:23 UTC22. Jan. 30, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a theory of everything be found this century?
Manifold MarketsWill a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRegeln
There has been some recent media chatter about the Timescape theory, because of this new paper: https://academic.oup.com/mnrasl/article/537/1/L55/7926647
- News coverage: https://theconversation.com/huge-if-true-dark-energy-doesnt-exist-claims-new-study-on-supernovas-246674 https://www.thequantumcat.space/p/the-week-in-space-and-physics-timescapes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoDPPuhASGw
- By 2030, will a majority of cosmologists assign more than a 30% credence to a Timescape style theory?
- By Timescape style, I mean: - Rejecting the cosmological constant or dark energy - Rejecting the cosmological principle
- It should be pretty clear but if not I'll try to email some people, and for good beasure I won't bet on this market
Offene Märkte
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 226.325,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 125.213,7 €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 108.303,7 €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5183 €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 88% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists? entschieden?
- Will the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists? soll am 22. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: There has been some recent media chatter about the Timescape theory, because of this new paper: https://academic.oup.com/mnrasl/article/537/1/L55/7926647