Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026?
One-OffWirtschaftTrade PolicyMacro & Economy3MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 79.8%
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Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet10. Feb. 26, 18:37 UTC1. Jan. 27, 00:00 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?
PolymarketWill US unemployment get above 6% in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.2% in December 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.7% in December 2026?
ForecastExRegeln
Resolves YES if BLS reports US unemployment rate above 4.5% for any month in 2026.
- Current rate ~4.0%.
- Key risk factors: tariff-driven disruption, federal workforce reductions.
Offene Märkte
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 89,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 541.193 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 30.703 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 334.228 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 12.782,3 €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10.726,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 10.726,9 €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 612.533,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 6886,5 €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5285,2 €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 80% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? entschieden?
- Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if BLS reports US unemployment rate above 4.5% for any month in 2026.