Will "Underdog bias rules everything around me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 84% (Stand: 26. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird Will "Underdog bias rules everything around me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? entschieden?

Will "Underdog bias rules everything around me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? soll am 1. Februar 2027 entschieden werden.

Wie wird Will "Underdog bias rules everything around me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? abgerechnet?

Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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Kostenloses JSON zu diesem Markt, ohne API-Schlüssel:

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POLYMARKET

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

• December 31-0.3pt4%
• October 31+0.1pt1%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

Gesamtvolumen

67 Mio. €

24h-Volumen

392.031,1 €

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

• Before Jan 20, 202922.5%
• Before Jan 1, 202813.5%
• Before Jan 1, 20274.5%

KALSHI

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

• No97.5%
• Yes-1.0pt2.5%

Gesamtvolumen

468.466,6 €

24h-Volumen

POLYMARKET

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

• 1+2.0pt88.8%
• 2-1.5pt11.2%
• 30%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

POLYMARKET

Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?

• June 30+9.0pt54%
• December 3112%

Gesamtvolumen

15.004,5 €

24h-Volumen

2028,3 €

KALSHI

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

• Yes+5.2pt81.7%
• No18.4%

Gesamtvolumen

389.116,7 €

24h-Volumen

1838,1 €

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