Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 74.7%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet2. März 26, 10:16 UTC31. Dez. 26, 13:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?
PolymarketWill the US announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops from Europe by the end of 2026?
FutuurUSD x Iranian rials End of September? (Higher Strikes)
PolymarketRegeln
Update 2026-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Russian-Ukrainian war casualties do NOT count towards resolution.
- This market is specifically for new conflicts (such as Iran bombing a European country).
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 470.753,1 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will there be any casualties in Europe from missile strikes in 2026?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 75% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will there be any casualties in Europe from missile strikes in 2026 entschieden?
- Will there be any casualties in Europe from missile strikes in 2026 soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will there be any casualties in Europe from missile strikes in 2026 abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Update 2026-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Russian-Ukrainian war casualties do NOT count towards resolution.